Calibrated probability for crypto. Not vibes.

Nine independent AI agents. One Bayesian ensemble. Every forecast comes with a Brier score, confidence interval, and full track record.

Information service. Not investment advice.

Live calibration feed — updated every 6s
BTC7d
0.62
Closes above $80k+0.04
n=2,847
ETH7d
0.48
Closes above $4.2k-0.04
n=1,923
SOL7d
0.71
Closes above $180+0.03
n=1,567
AVAX7d
0.55
Closes above $38+0.04
n=892
ARB7d
0.38
Closes above $1.10-0.04
n=734
OP7d
0.66
Closes above $2.50+0.03
n=612

Nine specialized agents

Each runs independently. The judge aggregates.

technical_analyst

Price action, regime detection, volatility cones

news_and_macro

Reuters, Bloomberg, FOMC, ETF flows

onchain_analyst

Glassnode, Nansen, MVRV, miner flows

social_sentiment

Twitter/X, Reddit, bot-adjusted

risk_analyst

Liquidation maps, funding, open interest

trader_reputation

Calibration scores, inverse-weighted by hype

contrarian_analyst

Designed to disagree, lowers groupthink

sanitizer

Removes PII, regulatory flags, prompt injection

judge

Bayesian ensemble, calibration constraint
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Brier Score
0.187 -25.2%

Squared error vs observed outcomes. Lower is better.

Industry baseline: 0.25
ECE
0.041 -48.8%

Expected Calibration Error. <0.05 is excellent.

Industry baseline: 0.08
Coverage
86% +12%

Of top-50 assets by volume, 90-day window.

Sharpe (paper)
0.92 +104%

Risk-adjusted paper-trading returns.

Industry baseline: 0.45

Top calibrated traders this month

Ranked by Brier score. Lower is better.

#
Handle
Brier
Streak
1
0x7a3f...e9d2
0.142
47 days
2
0x9c1b...a4f7
0.156
31 days
3
0x2e8d...b1c5
0.161
28 days
4
0x5f4a...d3e8
0.168
19 days
5
0x1b6c...f2a9
0.173
14 days

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